Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Revisiting the powerful & universal instigator

Writing for a purpose, indeed! Well this one is a boring essay of mine which made it to the 37th ISC Symposium at St. Gallen. Hopefully, I will make it now considering (and my gtalk buddies can vouch for this) my "busy" schedule.



Resources, what resources? They ask

From time immemorial, resources have been the overwhelming cause of war and conflict, of greed and deception and of prosperity and harmony. Resources, what resources? They ask. Historically, these naturally occurring commodities, in their unmodified form, have had the potential of dictating the true wealth of a Nation. There was perhaps, never a time when a nation was content with its possession of natural resources and often, this became reason enough to annex others’. Even as the manner of subjugation transformed itself from a purely geographic one to the more dangerous yet esoteric economic one, the power factor of the Natural resources proved to be the sole reason for every political, economic and social decision made worldwide. As we shall examine and conclude in this manuscript, the role of natural resources has been that of a powerful and universal instigator.

The first question begs the nature of these seemingly nondescript natural resources, and the most potent tool we can employ is that of classification. A preliminary view may suggest categorizing natural resources as animate vs. inanimate or as renewable vs. non renewable or alternately, a distinction could be made between tangible vs. intangible resources. For instance, it is a given that the inanimate, non-renewable and tangible resource of Petroleum is the single most important natural resource known to Mankind in the 21st century. Yet, the future of a sustainable world depends on the ability of Man to harness efficiently the inanimate, renewable and intangible resource of Sunlight for meeting his ever expanding energy requirements. As we look towards future development, it is imperative that our focus on what resources to harness needs to change significantly from the one we have at present.

Even as we have expected the developed economies to show decreasing dependence on the natural resources for generation of wealth, we need to investigate and answer if this has truly been the case. We revisit the brave new world and look at territories from different parts of the world, their economies and socio-political developments to assess their strategy in this game of exploring, exploiting and salvaging the natural endowments of our planet. We also examine the crucial significance of natural resources in the historical development of any Nation. While the first part of the essay tracks down this role in shaping our worldwide development, the second part develops on specific case studies where the natural resources have proved to be the backbone of any developing economy.


The Long Age of Innocence

Of the 4.567 billion years that Earth has aged since its birth, it has been scientifically established that the genus Homo Sapiens has existed on the planet for about 250,000 years. With the exception of the past two centuries of the post Industrial revolution era, it has been a rather long age of innocence for Mankind. Early 18th century was characterized by a world population of under a billion, and modest resource consumption per individual. While it took us over 150 years to double our numbers the first time, we repeated the same feat twice successively in little less than 65 years and 40 years respectively to reach an unmanageable population of 6.45 billion individuals in year 2005. In stark contrast to the pre-Industrial revolution era man, an average individual of our century is excessively consuming, possessing needs and demands that are no longer innocuous.

During this age of innocence, Modern Man had been completely dependent on the economics of nature for survival. The rich flora and fauna teeming on the planet had kept the hunter-gatherers active until about 10,000 years ago when the advent of agriculture brought man in a state of mild negotiation with his environment, leading to the rise of human settlements. These settlements were predominantly rural civilizations which were self sustaining in their occupations of agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing and forestry.

Even though the earliest instances of trade dates back to 150,000 years, the majority of long distance trading routes came into prominence much after 3000 BC. Be it the Harappans in Indus Valley trading metals with Mesopotamians or years later the closely linked Silk Route connecting China to Mediterranean Europe through India, Persia and the Middle East, the socio-economic development of these isolated settlements was catalyzed solely by exchange of their natural resources. The earliest items of trade were restricted to the naturally occurring commodities that these settlements were endowed with aplenty, such as metals and their ores, precious stones, spices, silk etc. while artifacts (symbolical or practical), created by human skill, came into prominence much later.

The innocence of that era had much to do with our approach in harnessing the resources of the land. Even though it lacked the scientific nature of a sustainable method, it was not all pervasive and exhaustive. Times of transition were seen gradually with the replacement of manual labor with automation triggering the Industrial Revolution.

The Times They Are A-Changin'

A remarkable shift in the dynamics of production was triggered by technological innovation with the adoption of the machine, initiated by the invention of the steam engine. This process transcended across existing industries from textile to iron-making, from increased use of exhaustible resources such as Coal and Petroleum to improvement in the modes of transportation. The socio-economic face of the planet changed much too quickly after that and it was only a matter of time before the innate imperialistic nature of Man would make the dynamics political with annexation and subjugation of the lesser developed world.

As Adam Smith indoctrinates in his work, “The Wealth of Nations”, the maxims of division of labor and efficiency in production took precedence. Consumption was thrust on the general populace with ever increasing production and myriad products flooded markets. To prevent any imbalances that could occur between supply and demand, it became essential for the new found economies to trade these products in isolated markets abroad. This in turn, made quite a few of the labor intensive occupations redundant and was instrumental in economic subjugation of existing rural economies.

The New World Order

The emergence of a new world order within the post Industrial Revolution era was a given. While there was a remarkable shift of population from rural areas to the new formed cities and from farms to factories in the newly Developed World, there was an imperative economic domination that took the garb of Imperialism as the divide between the now Developed and the Under Developed World widened. With this the control of resources of the subjugated economies changed hands. As the world was segregated into a set of ruling Nations and a set of colonized territories, the dominating aspect of the occupation was the possibility of exploit natural as well as human resources.

While colonization involving annexation of territories and thrust of political control reached its apex during the two World Wars, it receded with the setting up of international organizations to promote economic development and cooperation among nations such as the United Nations Organization or the UNO almost 3 centuries after its birth. However, more recently a new form of Imperialism, Neo-Colonialism has emerged with the Developed economies evolving more esoteric ways to burden the Less Developed Countries of debt, to be able to assert control over their assets and resources. While the nature of tools employed for rendering this control has shifted from powerful weapons to financial / trade policies, neither the spirit of controlling nor the victims themselves have changed.

Examples of Neo-colonialism are galore, especially evident in the weak African nations such as erstwhile Belgian colony of Congo, where a hastened decolonization process was followed by foreign investment to control major natural resources based industries such as mining and forestry.

A Great Leveler?

It is easy to recount not one but many instances where the presence of natural resources have single handedly had the potential / altered the economy of countries uniquely. In most cases, economies have faltered due to their inability in harnessing these resources to their best capacity.

A typical case in point is that of Peru. For centuries, Guano, excrement of birds, bats and seals, had been harvested along the Peruvian coastline profitably. The `unique dry weather, colonies of sea birds and absence of human intervention ensured deposits of Guano that had been collected to a depth of meters. Guano is one of those rare and valuable products that were valued and traded like Gold, and which had found multiple uses, most prominently as a powerful natural phosphates fertilizer . Not only, was the discovery of this product the cause of the War of the Pacific (Peru-Bolivia alliance Vs. Chile) but lead to the Guano Islands Act, a federal legislation passed by the U.S. Congress to colonize these Pacific islands to harness these resources.

In no other instance is an event more dramatic on account of its socio-economic implications as the one that occurred in California in mid 19th Century. The California Gold Rush accounted for the migration of over 300,000 Europeans and Americans within a few years to the odd hamlets in California in quest for the valuable reserve of Gold. This represented a 20 times increase in population of the Europeans in the state within a decade, while the Native American population during the same period was shot down to one fifth of its original figure of 150,000. Since then, California has become the symbol of the Great American Dream, while preserving its land of plenty by replicating the Gold Rush numerous times for not only the miners in 1850, but for farmers, oil drillers, movie makers, airplane builders and "dot-com" entrepreneurs during the past 150 years.

Today, located as we are in all possible parts of the planet, if we feel the one natural resource common to us all, our weather, we realize that we are very close to a global failure. When the temperature recorded in California is 25C less than that in New York, we know that the world’s biggest economy, which just witnessed a record annual increase of 3.5% in its Gross Domestic Product, is STILL very much going through a crisis. When we look at the records of recent disasters and deduce that their frequency has been increasing dramatically, be it a tsunami, an earthquake, or a hurricane, we know that the writing is on the wall. In our horde for natural resources, we have amassed and come to control many but without realizing their nature of them all. Our choices and decisions for consumption have been untimely, unplanned and exhaustive leading us to this brink of a resource endangerment.



Bibliography

1) “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”, by Adam Smith (1776)

2) Wikipedia (www.wikipedia.org) – Multiple articles from the free online encyclopedia, transcending topics such as Age of Earth, Trade Routes, Industrial revolution, Imperialism, History of the World etc.

3) “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2017”, Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office.

4) “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man”, by John Perkins (2004)

5) “The Accumulation of Capital”, by Rosa Luxemburg (1913)

6) Information about individual economies from Amiglobe 2002 – Copyright by Olivier Collard

7) "Japan Economy", CIA World Factbook available online at the CIA webaddress: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html

8) “Neo-Colonialism: The Last Stage of Imperialism”, by Kwame Nkrumah (former Prime Minister and President of Ghana), originally published 1965

Friday, February 16, 2007

The Infamous Debate... God - to be or not to be

Rahul: what is this shivaratri stuff?
Rashmi: shiva rathri ----> festive for lord shiva ? aren't you hindu?
Rahul: I hate the word
and the religion
in fact all religions
and I forgot
I dont give a damn for the God
or the Gods I meant
anyway.. whats shiva rathri for u?
Rashmi: Do not shun away things you do not beleive in
it is of value to someone else ;-)
Rahul: ok now.. why dont u answer my question. Whats shiva rathri to u?
Rashmi: It is a fast for lord shiva ---
See --- in this materialistic world -- different fasts and festivals are created for a reason ----
for humans to stop for a moment and recoup ---- it is a like recharging your batteries
Rashmi: shiva - rathri is one of them -- where you spend the whole night in either in the temple or at home concentratning on the infinite power
Rahul: see surprisingly
Rashmi: I respect your atheism --- I am sure you have a theory for it ----
Rahul: i thought I will spend the whole night today awake and doing something
so kinda my shiva rathri too
Rashmi: just like my firm belief in the almisty power
Rahul: ok god.
if I hear one more indication to swami.. I will curse him twice
Rashmi: see --- I told you I respect your aethism --- thus resiprocate by respecting my belief
Rahul: ok swami
as in swami's girl
Rashmi: ;-)
Rashmi: shiva rathri is in four stages ---
the times arew 9.00 - 12.00 - 3.00 and 600
usually there is a big pooja at these times in the temple ---
In SL --- I used to go to multiple temples
Rahul: and...
Rashmi: hire a van start from one corner of colombo and go to the other corner
try to make it to shiva temples at the above times
I used to cover around 12 temples ;-)
Rahul: this is just sounding too rummy
i meant.. cover 12 temples! who does that
Rashmi: rummy --- what does that mean
Rahul: is ur family into preisthood?
rummy - Beyond or deviating from the usual or expected
priesthood I meant.
Rashmi: no no -----
they are pretty releigious
I like it --- a mix of materialistic life and religion
Right after my A/L ( advanced level) --- I used to go for some releigious discourses
I had a few friend who were into it ---
Rashmi: The Ramakrishna mission priests from India are amazing
Rahul: goes to the temple ever so often
Rashmi: thats a nice habbit you know ---
Rahul: pls dont get me started. I : God :: Hitler : Jews
Rashmi: To me ---- releigion to human is like a operating system to a computer
Rahul: so what happens to the irreligious Computers
Rashmi: PLEASE DO NOT COMPARE RELIGIOUS FANATISM and religious beliefs
Rahul: I think religions to humans are more like Spam to Inbox and Virus to Computers
fanatism is plain stupidity and is not even in the picture
Rashmi: They are baseless ----
you are talking talking about hitler and jews in the context of releigion
Rahul: even believing in god is bad, religion is like worse.. and fanatism is worst
that was to give u a perspective of the word Hate
Rashmi: I agree that there is releigous fanatism and I oppose it
but I cannot blame releigion for it ------
Rahul: its religion
Rashmi: desruption in the world is inevitable --- religions is just used as a tool --- if not releigion something else will be used
Rahul: i dont know how man came out with the concept of God.. and of course the creativity behind creating religion is extraordinaire
Rashmi: religion is not creativity -- it is realisation ----
Rahul: thats so corny
Rashmi: it is a "way to live life" ----
sad to here religion and corny in the same sentence
Rahul: i can use religion with a lot of other worse words in the same sentence
dont be mad
Rashmi: Rahul --- whether you like it or not ---agree or not --- religion is a beatiful concept ---- try to read a few books --- start with Bhagavat Gita ----
Rahul: i will read all of them
but not with the idea of adopting a religion
Rashmi: I agree it is used wrongly be people --- but it is still a beautiful
Rahul: pls.. there is enough in the world to devote time to.. instead of putting it into religion
Rashmi: like what?
Rahul: like saving nature, species,
curing ills such as Iraq
and other man made disasters
like Kashmir for me.. North of Srilanka to u
religion is the last thing we should devote time to
its man made and so is God
imagine a world without God
Rashmi: when you loose everything in life -- you need something to cling onto ---
Rahul: peaceful!
how abt Karma
cling to Karma
Rashmi: you need to believe in something
you beleive in arma?
Karma?
Rahul: Karma = good deed
thats abt it
Rashmi: you beleve in it?
Rahul: not in karma for a better life next time or some crap like that
I believe in my own version of Karma. Not that if I do bad deeds.. its gonna comeback to me but because its natural to do good deeds
or at least we should do unconditional good deeds
Rashmi: karma is not about better life --- it is about the purpose of life --- is the finance account of each soul ---
Rahul: but I guess we cant get all to believe the same so we get god and religion into it
to each his/her own version of karma
Rashmi: exactly ---
Rahul: anyway so just because we are corrupt or stupid to not understand what say PI is.. we tell everyone a different version of PI but not the true value of
Rashmi: you said it all ----- human mind is so fickle , it needs to be given a physical form to hold onto
Rahul: 3.1415926535897932384626433832792
and so on and so forth
Rashmi: thus the temples and the statues in it
for a person like you --- who could see beyond that --- you do not need temple, rituals etc etc
Rahul: or God for that matter!
Rashmi: you see god in "peace" in "cause"
Rahul: Do u mind if I put this chat on a blog
without ur and my name on it?
Rashmi: ya --- I think you beoleive in god too --- you just do not admit is
it
ok ----
Rahul: yes I believe in God.. Hating God
Rashmi: without my name
Rahul: :)
and mine of course
We will make u --.. tell me what name u want?
Rashmi: you just do not like the word god --or the physical form ---
Rahul: or the concept?
Rashmi: you are in the third stage or seeing god in eeverything
Rahul: see let me explain u what I mean.. suppose man had never thought of God and had only thought of Karma and that was brought down centuries after centuries.. and ppl were told to do good things etc.. all the time.. world would be different
so God is just taking the limelight where it should be something else
Rashmi: God could be perceived in three forms ---
Aruvam , Uruvam and Aruvuruvam
Rahul: now u r enroute to disclosing who u r
not many ppl know this stuff
Rashmi: Uruvam --- physical form --- which my small fickle mind needs --- the temple and its rituals
aruvuruvam --- shivalingam -- semi form
aruvam --- no form but deed --- which you believe in
the end cause is always the same --- you do not hate god ---- you hate the rituals and temple
who said you are an aethist?
Rahul: actually atheist dont believe in existence of God
I certainly do believe in existence of a concept.. I however hope it would be better to eradicate the concept
Rashmi: you believe in "peace" , "love" , Karma and good deed --- you beleive in god
Rahul: well ur definition of God is too broad to accomodate all
Rashmi: i cannot speak for other religions --- but Hinduism is a customiseable religion
you could fit it to your size ;-)
Rahul: wait till u see this text online
Rashmi: mine is in the low end --- I need the temple and rituals
Rahul: ppl will hail u as a South Indian Priest
Rashmi: yours is in thought and deed
I am not a priest --- I just happen to appreciate the beauty of Hinduism
Rahul: ok ok
Rashmi: you may want to do a spell check before you put this online;-)

OFW - World Business Dialogue in Cologne, 28th-29th March 2007

Well, I know this is atypical of me, but I am finding out loads of avenues to make this blog the best ever! At least the most interesting ones around. So I am starting out by putting out here a random article that kinda got me through to the above mentioned conference....read it to kill urself of boredom. I promise my next post will be interesting to say the least.. lets just say the least... Least!


III – Changing Society


Homecoming of the Work Culture


Introduction – The Indian way of life

It was not so long back in a country known worldwide for its undeniably immodest population – with a base population of a billion and an unrestrained growth rate of 2%, we were adding the population of the Australian continent each year – that urban life was an unrealized dream for millions. In 1990s, with over 85% of the subcontinent population[1] sustaining itself in rural areas and townships, the problem of isolation and anonymity was unheard of. With the Indian culture deeply rooted in these civilizations, traditional family circles and closely knit community life were the unquestionable norm. No individual in this way of life was safe from the prying eyes of the community – a bane (?) or probably a boon, considering that this form of equilibrium has existed not only for decades but for centuries for a country teeming with one sixth of the world population.

It may interest us here to analyze the aspects of this way of life that knit the residents of such a community to each other so profoundly. Community in the rural was ancestrally defined, carried forward year after year and was formed more out of compulsion than choice. Caste, occupation, social class, religion and family made it a certainty for any individual. Man’s inherent dependence on his social fabric for existence, thus helped the cause of such a community. Other factors such as the absence of an efficient communication system, an unexplored transportation network and general inertia kept such communities at bay from other neighboring ones.

A paradigm shift

With the liberalization process initiated in the Indian economy during early 1990s, there was a gradual yet unprecedented rush of investment into the economy. The industry sectors most becoming for these investments were the traditional ones such as manufacturing (automobiles, pharmaceutical etc.), financial and other services. But, this era was to be characterized by globalization, which was underlined by the exponential growth observed in the prospects of the Information Technology (IT) and IT enabled services. An increasing number of jobs were moved from all over the developed world to a select set of destinations in India. Urbanization in its rudest form was knocking at our doorstep and while towns upgraded their stature to unplanned cities, the cities converted to bustling metropolises within a matter of months. Within the decade, the urbanization was complete for additionally 15% of the nation’s population.

Factors that helped the cause of India were its strong reliance on its comprehensive education system and its comfort in communication using the medium of English. While, educated Indians found jobs aplenty, the unemployment rate ebbed to its lowest recorded levels. The tool we had come to know as Internet turned out to be critical in transforming the socio-economic order of the country. Referred to as BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) or KPO (Knowledge Process Outsourcing), the fastest growing industry in the country along with the IT industry, employed 15%[2] of the working population and claimed account for over 25%[3] of the Indian Gross Domestic Product. There are few known precedent for such dramatic transformations and none that have affected such a significant part of a nation’s populace. Oil discovery in the Middle East, California Gold rush and the Chinese manufacturing engine have similar tales to narrate.

Alienation in the new Metropolis

Large scale migrations occurred between the rural and the urban regions of the country during this decade to meet the employment demand supply curve. Not only was the rural urban divide widened in terms of disparity in labor compensation and quality of life but there was a significant transformation in the communities represented in the two regions. As pointed out by Peter Drucker[4], a management guru of our times, city was attractive precisely because it offered freedom from the compulsory rural community making it more voluntary. Since the measure of choice worked as a double edged sword, there was severe alienation in the new Metropolis, with an increasing number of disgruntled and disjoined individuals swarming the city.

Empirically, it has been observed that the absence of strong societal structures contributing to this feeling of alienation is not an isolated event restricted to the neo-cities of India. Even within the developed countries of USA, UK etc. the top priority has been of reforming the cities to form meaningful urban communities that call for individual participation and contribution. There has been, in general, a failure at the business and government level to however bridge this gap. In the sections that follow, I have outlined instances of successful communities that have formed for the highly educated knowledge workers with an example each in different cultures and economies. A thorough analysis of these lead one to believe that there is certainly a model to be followed to dismantle the feeling of alienation that an individual is exposed to within the pressures and confines of an urban civilization.

A unique and unexpected societal structure

It has been universally agreed that an unlikely and successful community that has come to stay has been in the country of Japan in the form of the large business enterprise – both successful family businesses and the massive corporations such as Toyota, Sony and Matsushita. Not only has the successful corporation provided its denizens with a source of employment, but with its motto of "lifetime employment" the private sector increasingly has become a way to make a life far more frequently than a way to make a living. In sharp contrast to Japan, the strong rigid capitalist economic system in USA has been the least successful in developing such a community. However, very successfully enterprises that have stood the test of time and remained true leaders in their niche sectors have proved their ability in providing such communities to their employees. Corporations such as Goldman Sachs, McKinsey & Co. and Microsoft are leading examples of firms that have enabled this strong community for their employees.

Other additions to this small list of successful corporations have been the new insignificant players in the IT enabled services in India. Within the Business Process Outsourcing domain, there has been rise in the number of call center corporations as well as companies off-shoring processes such as legal, technical, accounting, risk, operations etc. Most of such firms mushrooming in India in dozens have had an average age of their employees at almost 25 years[5]. To constrict the turnover rate which has been hovering over the 100%[6] mark annually, these firms have tried to quickly develop a unique culture that would provide their employees with a feeling of achievement, of satisfaction with their job and the social fabric that would put them at ease with their peers and seniors alike. Overall, it remains to be seen how successful this strategy has been with the attrition rates dropping considerably, as retaining their employees, clearly their greatest asset, has become the most significant goal of these firms.

Home coming of the Work Culture

We stand to learn quite considerably from each of the instances profiled above. Empirically seen, the business enterprise has been more successful than the average government organization in developing a community for its individuals, one that honors personal attributes of achievement, job satisfaction and friendly competition. However, the enterprise is clearly not the sole body that has the power of envisioning such stable and self sustaining societies for its employees. In future, we increasingly expect nongovernmental, non-business and nonprofit organizations to take a lead in developing such communities with the aim of repairing the already damaged social fabric and participate in the process of civilizing the cities.

On the other hand, the foremost lesson that one can surely derive from the observations made above is with regard to the factors that a business enterprise should indulge in to make such a community possible. A unique culture comes within a healthy organization which chooses a path of leadership in its own niche industry. The employees are made to feel an integral part of the growth story of such a firm, via rewarding measures such as the Employees Stock Option Plans (ESOPs), pay for performance and focus on employee development/training.

In addition, the firm should realize that the Japanese model of life time employment, may not be the ideal one to look up to, as the transience and dynamism of today’s world may make this option quite unrealistic. A quick realization could go a long way in determining the changed strategy of the firm in retaining its employees by focusing on the internal community development. With the workplace accounting for over 35-50% of the total life of any productive individual, it logically follows that the workplace culture be instrumental in providing the new social fabric that can support and indulge the abstaining employee. With better recruiting practices, intensive workplace training, and programs that can facilitate informality at the work place (such as casual dressing, celebrating festivals, fun days at work to help bonding among employees etc.) a firm can safeguard their existing employee community by choosing the right individuals to become a part of it. The phrase “homecoming of the work culture” is coined to represent a work place community that makes the employee a part of the family of the firm.

References

[1] Indian Census Report 1991
[2] http://www.bpoindia.org/research - Research on the Indian Business Process Outsourcing Industry
[3] http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/in.html - The Indian Fact book available at CIA.gov
[4] http://www.leadertoleader.org/leaderbooks/L2L/winter98/drucker.html - Civilizing the city, full article by Peter Drucker
[5] http://www.voicendata.com/content/bporbit/annualsurvery/default.asp - First Annual Survey of the Indian BPO Industry
[6] http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=37325 – Indian BPO industry does an about face

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Once in two months.. well almost...

The title may seem to suggest something else to the creative minded, so let me put it in perspective. The title honours the fact that it has taken me over two months to follow up on my last post. The rule of 3Ds for any reader is applicable, of course, after it has been defined for him (Pardon me for assuming that there are no female visitors to this site, one can not be overly optimistic!). So back to 3D - Disappointing, Discouraging and Disgusting to say the deast... I mean least.

Contrary to what it may suggest to a casual reader, that the author has nothing to report, believe me I have been swamped of news so much so that I couldn't muster enough bribe for the ten fingers to type it out for me. Lots has been happening.

There has been a change in location... its New but no longer Delhi. Its York now. A Toshiba laptop has replaced the loyal assembled desktop I had bought years back in Cal. And now, the capitalism has moved geography but communication is still restricted to a captive CDMA... I have Sprint-ed from Reliance, or should I say that my Reliance is now on Sprint?

Now that the boundary conditions for my existence in this real and virtual world has been defined, let me suggest an end to this post with the ever faithful 3Es promise of an Author to return to his blog... Earnestly, (Un-)Erringly and if not, Eventually.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Sportingly oriented...

There is a rejuvenating effect of a sport that can erase from your mind the trauma of a sleepless night, as popularly experienced and referred to by the colloquial 'night-out'. There is a laundeering effect of the same sport that can wash off your head the deepest and most effusive of hangovers. This is not an attempt to make you guess the sport. I am just making a claim regarding the panacea-tic effect of this sport I happen to be in love with. And for those who have fallen prey to the whims of their hearts, in an unrequited fashion, this refreshing sport comes as a reminder of what-can-be where nothing, at the moment, is.
So be a sport, and read the rest about this sport later...

My life as a ...quite literally

As I wind up the penultimate page of Dr. Derman's "My life as a quant", I realize that he has not only come a full circle in his lifetime, but has brought me through one too. Completing a Phd from Columbia University in Particle Physics and then joining his alma mater, as a Prof. in Financial Engineering has been his reason for deja vu. In his book, he contests in the first few pages how while modeling in Physics one is playing against the Gods, who have a set of rules they do not change often, while in Finance, one has to play against God's creatures (humans), who move, make, or mud the market.

"Each universe should be consistent, but the actual financial and human world, unlike the world of matter, is going to be infintely more complex than any model we make of it.", writes Dr. Derman.

Well, most certainly my full circle comes with this phrase as I quite realize that in his book the initial concept has phoenix'ed in much the same way as his relationship with Columbia. And, yet it suddenly hits me, as if I was expected to only now understand the complete meaning of why my proud models can't explain the reality as well as the reality itself.

I search for an analogy and find an easy, convenient and yet inspiring one in the human body. How the involuntary motion, the heart beat, is like God itself and to a cave man trying to deduce this movement he discovers the Pulse running close to the palm... And when the same neanderthal searches and studies for ways and methods that can be successfully employed to predict / compute / evaluate/ and do all those things a model is supposed to, to guess what his neighbour is feeling, thinking, or acting - the voluntary motion, he fails miserably. At best, based on empirical data, behaviour of all neighbours that he has come across he can form an opnion or a judgement which is no close or no further from a hunch or a guess of the likely action his neighbour may make next. But since it is supported by data, it will eventually follow the route of credible wisdom, as put succinctly by Blake in The Marriage of Heaven and Hell - "If a fool would persist in his folly, he would become wise."

Thursday, May 04, 2006

humble beginnings...

in the interest of time, at quite an unexpected high rate, let us just suffice to work on the modest principle (or principal in our case) that here is an opportunity to read confidential chats of entities... real, or may be imaginary at that...